Glossary
Nothing in a Keyydo forecast needs interpreting. Each entry names the section it appears in, and gives the formula where there is one.
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§09 Demand Generation
Advertising cost of sales. What you spend on ads as a share of the revenue those ads produced. It ignores organic sales, so a low ACoS on a small share of your revenue can still leave the launch unprofitable.
ACoS = ad spend ÷ ad-attributed sales
§02 Working Capital Cycle
The delay between a sale and the money reaching your bank. Amazon settles on a schedule rather than per order, so revenue earned in one month may arrive in the next. One of the legs that creates the trough.
§06 Amazon Fee Schedule
Amazon Warehousing and Distribution. Bulk storage upstream of the fulfilment network, charged per unit. Storage cost sits inside this figure rather than appearing as a separate line.
§09 Demand Generation
The advertising cost of sales above which a unit stops making money. Spend beyond it buys volume at a loss. Returns-inclusive, so it reflects units that come back.
Break-even ACoS = contribution per unit ÷ selling price
§12 Break-Even and Payback
The first month in which contribution covers the period's costs. Distinct from payback, which is when the capital you put in has come back.
§07 Per-Unit Economics
The contribution per unit at which the launch neither makes nor loses money over the horizon. A floor to price and cost against.
§04 Market Structure
Amazon's catalogue is a tree, and each branch is a browse node with its own ID. Sales rank is calculated per node, so the node a product sits in decides which competitors it is measured against.
§16 Assumptions Register
The date an input was read. Marketplace data moves, so every figure drawn from Amazon carries the date it was taken. It is what makes a forecast checkable rather than merely asserted.
§02 Working Capital Cycle
The number of days between paying for goods and being paid for them. The single mechanism behind the cash trough: the longer the cycle, the more capital a launch needs before it funds itself.
CCC = days of inventory + payout lag − supplier payment terms
§03 Your Buying Plan
Capital sitting in inventory that has been paid for but not yet sold. Real money, unavailable until the units move.
§04 Market Structure
How much of a category's volume sits with its largest sellers. High concentration means a few entrenched products hold the demand; low concentration means it is spread and more open to a new entrant.
§07 Per-Unit Economics
Contribution per unit as a share of what you actually receive per unit. The percentage that determines how much traffic you can afford to buy.
Contribution margin % = contribution per unit ÷ net revenue per unit
§07 Per-Unit Economics
What one unit leaves behind after the cost of goods, landing them, and Amazon's cut — but before advertising. This is the money advertising is spent out of.
Contribution = net revenue − landed unit cost − Amazon fees
§09 Demand Generation
What it costs in advertising to produce one order. Falls as organic rank compounds and paid dependency drops.
Cost per order = ad spend ÷ orders
§09 Demand Generation
Cost per click. What you pay each time someone clicks a sponsored placement. Set by auction, so it moves with how hard a category is being fought over.
§10 Launch Levers
Amazon's programme for paying creators a commission on sales they drive. Charged per sale rather than upfront, so it scales with volume instead of hitting the trough.
§09 Demand Generation
Conversion rate. The share of visitors who buy. Together with CPC it sets what traffic costs per order, which is why both are sensitivity variables rather than reporting metrics.
CVR = orders ÷ sessions
§02 Working Capital Cycle
How many days of sales the stock on hand represents. Higher cover means more capital held in goods.
§01 Launch Capital
How long the cash position stays below zero. The trough says how much capital you need; this says how long you need to hold it.
§01 Launch Capital
The cash position at month thirty-six. Where the launch leaves you once the horizon is done.
§06 Amazon Fee Schedule
Amazon's per-unit charge for picking, packing and shipping. Set by size tier and weight, so dimensions change margin directly.
§01 Launch Capital
The month the cash position first crosses below zero. The point at which outside funding starts being drawn.
§04 Market Structure
Final selling price. What a product actually sells for after promotions, not the list price. The category's FSP average is the base from which the landed unit cost ceiling is derived.
§04 Market Structure
How final selling prices are spread across the competitive set. A tight distribution means a clear price level; a wide one means the category supports several positions.
§05 Viability Check
The gap between the ceiling the category's price level sets and what your product actually costs to land. Positive is workable. Negative means the economics do not close at this price.
Headroom = maximum viable landed unit cost − your quoted cost
§07 Per-Unit Economics
The full cost of one unit delivered into Amazon's network: goods, freight, duty and inbound. Used throughout in place of COGS, because COGS is read as the factory price and leaves the rest out.
§05 Viability Check
The highest a unit can cost to land and still compete at this category's price level. A ceiling, not a cost — the report derives it, then you test your supplier quote against it.
§01 Launch Capital
The month the cash position reaches its lowest point. The bottom of the J-curve, and the moment the funding requirement is at its highest.
§13 Terminal Position
Annualised revenue at the end of the horizon, based on the final month's trading. What the product is running at when the forecast stops.
§09 Demand Generation
Sales the product would make without advertising, from search and browse alone. Grows as rank compounds.
§07 Per-Unit Economics
Net per unit as a share of net revenue per unit. What survives once advertising is taken out as well.
§07 Per-Unit Economics
What one unit leaves after everything, advertising included. Contribution answers what you can afford to spend; net answers what you kept.
Net per unit = contribution per unit − advertising per unit
§09 Demand Generation
The level at which organic demand stops growing for this product in this category. Advertising can move volume above it, but not for free — this is the honest limit on the ramp.
§09 Demand Generation
The proportion of sales that came from advertising. Falls over a successful launch; the pace at which it falls is what makes the difference between a business and a subsidy.
§12 Break-Even and Payback
The time from launch until the capital deployed has been recovered. Later than the break-even month, always.
§01 Launch Capital
The deepest the cash position goes before the launch turns. The single number that decides whether a launch is fundable, and the one the whole document is built around.
§05 Viability Check
Where you intend to price against the category average — at parity, above it for a premium position, or below. Set per engagement and stated as an assumption rather than assumed.
§01 Launch Capital
Money spent before the first sale: first inventory order, freight, photography, listing build, samples. Committed before any revenue exists to offset it.
§08 Promotional Strategy
A discount shown only to Prime members, with a badge on the listing. One of the levers that moves realised price away from list price.
§08 Promotional Strategy
The margin given up across the promotional calendar over the period. What the discounting actually cost, expressed once rather than event by event.
§15 Sensitivity Analysis
The input variables ordered by how much each one moves peak cash. Tells you which assumption to check first and which to stop worrying about.
§08 Promotional Strategy
The average price actually received per unit once coupons, deals, Subscribe & Save and event pricing are blended in. Always lower than list, and it is the number the model runs on.
§01 Launch Capital
The month the cash position returns above zero. Together with the first negative month it brackets the period you need funding for.
§06 Amazon Fee Schedule
Amazon's commission on each sale, charged as a percentage set by category. Taken off the selling price before anything else.
§03 Your Buying Plan
The stock level at which the next order has to be placed to arrive before you run out, given production and transit time.
§12 Break-Even and Payback
What the capital put into the launch produced over the horizon. The comparison a buyer makes against every other use of the same money.
ROIC = cumulative net profit ÷ capital deployed
§14 Three Scenarios
One run of the model under a stated set of demand assumptions. Conservative, base and upside differ in conversion, click cost and price — not in the plan being modelled.
§15 Sensitivity Analysis
How much the outcome moves when one input changes and everything else is held still. Isolates cause, where a scenario shows a combined effect.
§03 Your Buying Plan
The period where forecast demand exceeds cover and the product risks going unavailable. Costs rank as well as sales, which is why it appears in the buying plan.
§08 Promotional Strategy
Amazon's recurring-delivery programme. A standing discount in exchange for repeat purchase; it lowers realised price and raises retention at the same time.
§09 Demand Generation
Total advertising cost of sales. Ad spend measured against all revenue, organic included. Falls as a launch matures, which is why it reads the health of a launch better than ACoS does.
TACoS = ad spend ÷ total revenue
§01 Launch Capital
All money put into the launch across the horizon: inventory, advertising, fees and launch investment. Larger than the peak cash requirement, because some of it is funded by sales along the way.
§13 Terminal Position
Contribution over the final twelve months of the horizon. The basis a buyer or lender works from, rather than a single month.
§10 Launch Levers
Amazon's programme for getting reviews from vetted reviewers in exchange for free units. An enrolment fee per parent ASIN plus the cost of the units given away.
§08 Promotional Strategy
Two or more of your own products sold together as one listing without new inventory. Raises order value and changes realised price per unit.
§03 Your Buying Plan
How many weeks the stock on hand will last at forecast demand. Falls as sales accelerate, which is what triggers the next order.
Every input is stated, sourced and dated, and the method is fixed and checkable. The outputs are modelled projections under stated assumptions, not forecasts of actual results.