Financial forecasting for Amazon sellers
Keyydo builds financial forecasts for brands launching a product on Amazon US. One PDF report: thirty-six months modelled across three demand cases, from landed unit cost to peak cash requirement and the break-even month — every input sourced and dated.
Made to be questioned. That's what it's for — a decision instrument, not a verdict.
Why we built this
Sellers put real rigour into sourcing, pricing and positioning. The cash side usually gets a spreadsheet, because until now that was the practical option — and a spreadsheet is a snapshot of a business that moves month to month.
None of it is exotic. It's just connected. Your real selling price isn't the list price — it's what survives the promotional stack, blended across events, permanent deals and whatever it takes to stay competitive in the moment. Then Amazon takes its share: referral, FBA, AWD, storage — each on its own basis, none of them optional.
That price sets contribution per unit, and contribution per unit sets how much traffic you can afford to buy. So CPC and conversion rate stop being reporting metrics and start being budget constraints, alongside the things that move both quietly: Vine, Creator Connections, listing quality. And every unit that sells pulls the reorder closer, which turns inventory back into a cash question.
Model those together and the numbers that actually govern the launch fall out of it: true landed unit cost with nothing left off, contribution per unit, the break-even month, the peak cash requirement, and the month the business turns cash positive.
That's the job. And Keyydo does it properly.
Keyydo is founder-led. Behind the model sit more than 20 years of financial modelling and a working knowledge of Amazon US at the level of mechanics — referral, FBA, AWD and storage each on their own basis, what survives the promotional stack, lead times and what they do to the month a reorder lands in.
The two disciplines are the point. Marketplace knowledge keeps the inputs honest; the modelling turns them into a peak cash requirement and a break-even month. Either on its own gives you half a picture.
What you get
Modelled monthly across thirty-six months and three demand cases. Every metric in the document is defined in the glossary.
Total capital to launch, the deepest point, the month it hits, and how long you are under.
Total capital deployed · pre-launch capital · peak cash requirement · month of trough · first negative month · recovery month · days underwater · end-of-period cash
The gap between paying for goods and being paid for them. This is what creates the trough.
Supplier deposit and balance terms · production lead time · transit and inbound receive · days of inventory · Amazon payout cycle · cash conversion cycle
Every purchase order across three years — when to place it, when it lands, what it costs, and what it does to your cash.
Order placement month · arrival month · quantity · order cost · deposit and balance split · weeks of cover by month · stock-out exposure window · cash tied up in stock
The competitive set your launch is measured against, and how it was drawn.
Browse node and capture date · set size · FSP distribution and price bands · concentration · review depth and rating spread
Whether your landed unit cost clears the ceiling the category's price level sets.
FSP average · position multiplier · maximum viable landed unit cost · headroom vs. your quote
Every fee Amazon charges on this product at your dimensions and weight.
Referral rate by category · referral fee per unit · FBA fulfilment fee · AWD fee · returns processing
What survives on each unit after Amazon and advertising take their share.
Landed unit cost · contribution per unit · contribution margin % · net per unit · net margin % · breakeven contribution
The promotional calendar, what each action costs, and the price that actually lands.
Promotional blocks by lever, dates and depth · coupon depth and adoption · Subscribe & Save adoption · virtual bundle adoption · blended discount · realised price vs. list · promotional margin drag
What traffic costs now, how that cost falls as rank compounds, and the point above which advertising loses money.
CPC · CVR · ACoS · TACoS · cost per order · break-even ACoS, returns-inclusive · paid share and organic share · natural organic demand · organic ceiling · months where your ad budget is the binding constraint
Vine, Creator Connections and listing quality, priced and graded.
Vine enrolment · Creator Connections commission per sale · listing quality investment · graded optional to mandatory · peak cash with and without
Revenue, contribution and net position, month by month across three years.
Units sold · units kept and returned · gross revenue · net revenue · landed unit cost · contribution · net position · closing cash
When the product turns profitable, and when your capital comes back.
Contribution break-even volume · break-even month · payback period · return on invested capital
Where the product stands at month thirty-six, and what it would be worth on a stated basis.
Month-36 run rate · trailing twelve-month contribution · product-level net profit · indicative valuation at 3× trailing twelve-month net profit
Conservative, base and upside, modelled on conversion, CPC and price.
Scenario assumptions · peak cash by scenario · break-even month by scenario · days underwater by scenario
Which single variable moves peak cash most, and where the plan stops working.
Single-variable impact on peak cash · ranked sensitivity · breakpoints for CPC, CVR, price and landed unit cost
Every input, its value and where it came from, open to challenge.
Input · value · source · capture date
What to prioritise, what to watch, and what would change the read.
Priority actions · risks to monitor · sensitivity points · what would change the read
How it works
Create a free account at keyydo.app with your email or Google, then fill in your order. Selling price, landed unit cost, lead time and the other details are optional. Add what you know.
We check your competitor links sit in the right category and price range. That sets your competitive field.
An unfinished order is saved to your account. Once you submit it, it can no longer be edited.
At the centre: your peak cash requirement — the deepest point before the launch turns.
Around it: competitor pricing, your maximum viable landed unit cost, Amazon's fee load, ad spend, reorder timing.
Every input sourced and dated on the page.
Swap our derived landed unit cost for your supplier's. Price above the category instead of at it. Contest the competitive set.
Where it moves the number, we re-run and reissue once. No charge.
A financing decision with the reasoning attached, not asserted.
Pricing
One forecast covers one product on Amazon US. Each variation of that product — another size, count or flavour — is modelled inside the same forecast.
| Item | What it covers | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast | One product, the full seventeen-section document | $990 |
| Variation | Each additional variation of the same product, in the same forecast | $250 |
Fees in US dollars. Several distinct products, or a marketplace other than Amazon US — get in touch.
What this doesn't do
Amazon US, in the six categories above. One product per forecast, with its variations. Product-level economics only. This is not a business plan — operating expenses and capital expenditure sit outside the model and depend on how you run the business.
No supplier sourcing, listing creation or account management. We model the launch; you run it.
A forecast, not a guarantee. The method is fixed and checkable, and every input is stated. Small changes in assumptions can move the numbers substantially — which is why the sensitivity analysis is in the document.
Every figure is captured on a stated date. Categories move. Keyydo is under no obligation to monitor or update a forecast after delivery unless separately engaged.
Every input is stated, sourced and dated, and the method is fixed and checkable. The outputs are modelled projections under stated assumptions, not forecasts of actual results.